#177 Assault on Argentina’s Central Bank (BCRA)
No anchors in sight in a world in turmoil Crushing the program with the IMF Execution risk Fiscal…
#176 Agreement with the IMF… two weeks later
Two risks: Execution Risk and Transition Risk Execution Risk:The 1st review of the program is in May2022: more…
#175 Habemus an Agreement
Avoids implosion and stops the deterioration of relative prices, but it closes with more inflation and stagnation The…
#174 Gone with the time. The IMF moved its piece and we keep procrastinating
Understading with the IMFThe political risk after the understadingThe economic impact of the understanding– The Financial Program and…
#173 Pedaling in the Air. Part II
The IMF on vacation until January 10th First round of the gameBudget: the failed attempt to show political…
#172 Pedaling in the Air. Reaching for the IMF or hitting rock bottom
Results and new CongressAgreement with the IMF? What agreement and when?Markets´ first reactionA comment on a split dollarMacroeconomics…
#171 Three to tango? Iterating scenarios for 2022
Dilemma of three “groups” of prisonersPlayers, Game and Conflicting IncentivesPost Primaries 2022 scenariosThe account of pesos and dollars…
#170 Chronicle of a run “foretold”. With a lax IMF, the key to decompress is still on the political side.
The account in dollars and pesos, a month laterActivity hits a low, inflation reaches a ceiling?Elections: two readings…
#169 The noise of time. No leeway to keep procrastinating after November
How will be reach the November 14 elections?• Counting the dollars• Counting the pesos• Activity, Wages and InflationFour…
#168 Driving in the mud. Part III
IMF and vaccines? or Will we fall by the wayside? When the exchange gap wanes, politics gains speed.…